Home - The Rational Speculator

Selling a Corn Strangle

Corn’s volatility is providing an opportunity to sell rich options. I am selling strikes that are equidistant from being at the money so there is no directional bet. I just need time to pass and/or volatility to decrease to make some money on this trade (and the corn price not…

July 1, 2020·

Rolling Euronav Puts to August

I am rolling the Euronav (EURN) puts to August to collect an extra $0.18 of premium. Sold EURN Aug 10 Put for a total credit of 2.23.

June 30, 2020·

Trade ·
Closing ·

Closing Out the Natural Gas Position for $200 Profit per Contract

A small rebound in the price of natural gas is providing an opportunity to take a quick profit of $200 per contract. My rule of thumb is to take the trade off if it shows a quick and reasonable profit. Bought /NG Jul 1.5 P for a debit of 0.086.

June 28, 2020·

Adding Another Tranche of Scorpio Tankers (STNG)

I am adding a third tranche of Scorpio Tankers (STNG) as its share price has continued to fall. Scorpio has made a lot of cash so far this year which is not being reflected in its share price. This company, along with most tanker stocks, seems to be trading on spot…

June 26, 2020·

Trade ·
Closing ·

Silver Iron Condor Closed Out for a Loss of $575 per Contract

The iron condor in silver closed out for a loss of $575 per contract. Iron condors are defined risk trades. Their advantages include knowing the maximum possible loss at order entry and requiring less buying power reduction than undefined risk trades. Many traders like those attributes, but there are drawbacks.…

June 26, 2020·

Trade ·
Opening ·

Taking a Long Position on Natural Gas

Natural gas prices have been decimated. There are plenty of narratives to explain it including seasonal weakness, greater supply due to additional oil production as crude prices rise, etc. None of that matters to me. I am betting on a mean reversion and I will sell options to express my…

June 25, 2020·

Going Defensive on the Crude Trade

Crude prices remain strong so I am taking a defensive posture by rolling the short call to August as well as selling an August put. I am moving up the strike price on the call to increase the probability of making money on this trade. Undefined risk trades such as…

June 23, 2020·

Trade ·
Adjusting ·

Buying Back the Crude Put

Crude has run up past $40 now so I am buying back the put for an $0.80 debit. It will be interesting trying to make money on this position if crude holds above $40. The new position is Sold /CL Jul 35C for a $4.64 credit.

June 19, 2020·

Trade ·
Adjusting ·

Converting the Crude Oil Strangle into a Straddle

I am changing the strikes on the crude oil strangle to convert it into a $35 straddle. Rolling up the put and rolling down the call collects an additional $1.51 of credit. I will likely roll the straddle to August to add to the credit if we get a spike…

June 15, 2020·

Trade ·
Closing ·

Closing the NOB Spread for $312 Profit per Spread

There was a significant rally and the NOB spread narrowed leading to a $312 profit per spread in one day. There were opportunities to take the trade off at better prices, but I was a little early. Bought /ZB Sep 177′ 00 and sold 2 x /ZN Sep 138′ 215…

June 12, 2020·

Trade ·
Opening ·

Opening a NOB Spread

This Notes Over Bonds spread has widened out so I am going to fade it in anticipation of a relief rally. Let’s see how long this takes to work out. Sold /ZB Sep 177′ 28 and bought 2 x /ZN Sep 138′ 305.

June 11, 2020·

Trade ·
Opening ·

Selling a Crude Oil Strangle

I am selling a neutral strangle in crude oil. It is a decent accompanying position to my short crude futures position. My plan is to take off the short futures on further declines in crude, but leave on the strangle and manage as necessary. Sold /CL Jul 33P/37C strangle for…

June 11, 2020·

Speculation ·
Closing ·

Closing Out Trilogy Metals

I am closing my final position in Trilogy Metals (TMQ) for a scratch. I believe it is too early to get excited about an economic recovery which would be required to sustain increasing base metals prices. As long as Trilogy is able to secure its access road, I anticipate that this stock…

June 11, 2020·

Trade ·
Closing ·

Closing Out Gold Calls for a $240 Profit Each

I am selling the gold calls for a quick profit. Gold rebounded slightly during the next trading session so I am taking this opportunity to close out the trade for a $240 profit on each call. My portfolio delta is negative enough that it will benefit in a general market…

June 8, 2020·

Trade ·
Opening ·

Jumping into Gold Again

I do not usually buy options, but I am making an exception to buy out of the money calls on gold. The value of these options will continue to decline and do so rapidly unless the gold price spikes up again in the near term so this could become a…

June 5, 2020·

Trade ·
Closing ·

Closing Two Part Gold Trade for $1,130 Total Profit Per Contract in Two Days

Gold went in the right direction almost immediately. This trade might become a much bigger winner, but I want to harvest some profits now with the intent to go back in to a similar trade if gold pulls back again. Bought /GC Jul 1675P for a debit of 20.10. Sold…

May 29, 2020·

Commentary ·

The Fourth Turning

This is our era of destruction. 40 million unemployed in the U.S. and climbing. 100,000 Americans dead by COVID-19 and rising. Citizens caught between the virus hoaxers and the zero risk medical zealots. Reopen or lockdown? Inept and corrupt politicians. Politically-biased media. Entrenched racism, poverty and serfdom. A hollowed out…

May 29, 2020·

Trade ·
Opening ·

Going Long Gold

I want to increase my exposure to gold as its price has dropped recently. This will be a two part trade. I will sell a /GC put to collect premium and then use this premium to buy an out of the money /GC call. It’s a feel good trade in…

May 27, 2020·

Trade ·
Adjusting ·

Rolling Euronav Puts to July

I am rolling the Euronav (EURN) puts to July to collect an extra $0.25 of premium. Sold EURN Jul 10 Put for a total credit of 2.05.

May 27, 2020·

Trade ·
Closing ·

Closing Gold Strangle for $170 Profit Per Contract in One Day

I am buying back the gold strangle to make $170 profit per contract. Gold volatility came in a little providing an opportunity to take 10 percent of the maximum profit of the trade in one day. I’d do that everyday given the chance. /GC Jun -1620P-1915C for a debit of…

May 19, 2020·

Trade ·
Opening ·

Selling a Gold Strangle

I am selling a wide gold strangle in June to take advantage of its decent volatility. I expect gold to go higher in the long run, but I want to take advantage of its volatility in the short term. /GC Jun -1620P-1915C for a credit of 17.00.

May 18, 2020·

Speculation ·
Decreasing ·

Selling Trilogy Metals (TMQ) for a 9% Profit

I am selling the second tranche of Trilogy Metals (TMQ) for a 9% profit in order to raise additional cash. The share price may continue to climb as a result of an upcoming conference and news regarding the road milestone due at the end of the month. I might sell Tranche #1…

May 18, 2020·

Trade ·
Opening ·

Selling Tanker Puts

I am selling in the money puts in a tanker company called Euronav (EURN). Its options are fairly rich and I believe tanker stock prices will benefit from excellent earnings. Getting assigned would not be a poor outcome. Sold EURN Jun 10 Put for a credit of 1.80.

May 14, 2020·

Buying More Scorpio (STNG)

I am adding a second tranche of Scorpio Tankers (STNG) as it has pulled back significantly. Tanker stocks are volatile. Charter rates bounce around. Shares are sold for an infinite number of reasons. The important takeaway is that the fundamentals are strong. These companies are getting great rates for their ships…

May 12, 2020·

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