Commentary

The selloff was dramatic last week. The drama was in the speed of the fall and not so much because of the size of it. That speed made it difficult for many traders to make money including me and I was short S&P futures and long precious metals. Part way…

Gold has performed well during the past six months. In fact, it has been performing well for years. It might seem strange that it hasn’t done much in the past few days given the large selloff in the senior markets. This broad market selloff is driving some traders and investors…

I predicted gloomy economic times ahead in a recent Commentary. There are others who believe in a similar fate including Nobel Prize Winning Economist, Robert Shiller, who sees ‘bubbles everywhere’ and offers advice to ‘invest even though you expect the price to decline’ according to the Investor’s Business Daily piece.…

It has been difficult finding trades with volatility so low. I am not interested in forcing trades and both of my open trades are underwater. I am short bond straddles and gold puts. Just waiting it out. I will roll both positions to the next monthly expiry if they don’t…

Prediction #1 U.S.Recession is here or will be here soon. Much of the world is already in recession. I am predicting a severe recession resulting in a dramatic stock market decline. It will be the hard reset necessary to rid systems of excess and to seed opportunities for future growth.…

I enjoy reading Bloomberg’s John Authers’ daily blog and generally agree with his conclusions when presented. His recent article about a phenomenon that Ned Davis Research calls the ‘Goodnight Moon trade’ is an exception. NDR published a chart that shows buying SPY at each day’s closing price and selling it…

Some of the most successful traders of all time including George Soros, Stanley Druckenmiller, Ray Dalio, and Jeffrey Gundlach are macro traders. Becoming a successful macro trader is difficult business. Mere mortals without their capital and the time to be proven right will struggle. I can’t afford to be macro-focused.…