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Commentary

The Fourth Turning

This is our era of destruction. 40 million unemployed in the U.S. and climbing. 100,000 Americans dead by COVID-19 and rising. Citizens caught between the virus hoaxers and the zero risk medical zealots. Reopen or lockdown? Inept and corrupt politicians. Politically-biased media. Entrenched racism, poverty and serfdom. A hollowed out…
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Capitalism in the Oil Patch

May crude prices went negative a few hours ago. The June WTI contract is $21 as I write this post. That difference is a tell of high storage costs as demand is way down while storage is reaching capacity. I am betting that tanker stocks will do well as more…
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Causing Panic in Newfoundland

I keep an eye on the news in Newfoundland. It is my home province and I have many friends and family living there. A large Newfoundland shipping company, Oceanex, has created consternation by blaming the COVID-19 illness for its poor finances and is subsequently requesting federal subsidies if it is…
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Gold as a Hedge?

Gold has performed well during the past six months. In fact, it has been performing well for years. It might seem strange that it hasn’t done much in the past few days given the large selloff in the senior markets. This broad market selloff is driving some traders and investors…
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Core Positions to Weather the Storm

I predicted gloomy economic times ahead in a recent Commentary. There are others who believe in a similar fate including Nobel Prize Winning Economist, Robert Shiller, who sees ‘bubbles everywhere’ and offers advice to ‘invest even though you expect the price to decline’ according to the Investor’s Business Daily piece.…
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The Market Is Sleeping

It has been difficult finding trades with volatility so low. I am not interested in forcing trades and both of my open trades are underwater. I am short bond straddles and gold puts. Just waiting it out. I will roll both positions to the next monthly expiry if they don’t…
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5 Predictions of Economic Trouble Ahead

Prediction #1 U.S.Recession is here or will be here soon. Much of the world is already in recession. I am predicting a severe recession resulting in a dramatic stock market decline. It will be the hard reset necessary to rid systems of excess and to seed opportunities for future growth.…
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Goodnight Moon Trade

I enjoy reading Bloomberg’s John Authers’ daily blog and generally agree with his conclusions when presented. His recent article about a phenomenon that Ned Davis Research calls the ‘Goodnight Moon trade’ is an exception. NDR published a chart that shows buying SPY at each day’s closing price and selling it…
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Macro Trading

Some of the most successful traders of all time including George Soros, Stanley Druckenmiller, Ray Dalio, and Jeffrey Gundlach are macro traders. Becoming a successful macro trader is difficult business. Mere mortals without their capital and the time to be proven right will struggle. I can’t afford to be macro-focused.…
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